The release of Captain America: Brave New World marks a significant turning point for the MCU, but it might not be kickstarting the brave new world that Marvel hopes for.
When Anthony Mackie soared into cinemas on February 14, making his big screen debut as Cap, things initially looked promising. Over the four day Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day weekend, Marvel nabbed its 35th consecutive number one debut at the US box office with a $100 million gross.
So far, so good, and after ten full days in the cinema, it flew past 2008’s The Incredible Hulk with $289 million grossed worldwide. The Hulk's MCU debut used to be the lowest-grossing Marvel movie until The Marvels made just $199.7 million after four weeks back in 2023.
Captain America: Brave New World stayed on top for a second straight week too, but don't let that lead you astray because takings dropped dramatically like Sam in free fall. We're talking a 68.3% drop, which makes this the third worst in Marvel's history following Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (69.9%) and The Marvels (78.1%) in 2023.
Only eight other MCU movies out of the 35 released to date failed to make $150 million in their first ten days, and three of them (Black Widow, Shang Chi, and Eternals) were released in 2021 when cinema as a whole was still struggling to reckon with the pandemic.
Yet here we are, years later, and Brave New World is struggling without that excuse. Even Quantumania had a better sophomore weekend (and that movie's appeal remains as minuscule as the hero who stars in it).
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Based off its current total at $289 million, projections suggest that Brave New World might even struggle to reach $400 million, which puts Sam and co in very sad company indeed.
Only four MCU movies out of 35 have failed to reach that total, including The Marvels and The Incredible Hulk, of course, as well as Black Widow and Captain America: The First Avenger.
Brave New World has clawed back its reported production budget of $180 million, plus it's commendable for any franchise to reach its fourth instalment intact as only six other superhero series have managed that same feat.
It's also worth noting that there are some blockbusters series who would love for a $400 million result to be a 'flop', but this is Marvel we're talking about and in the context of the series, it is an unfortunate failure.
And still, there's long term damage to consider here when it comes to Marvel's brand worth.
Why is Captain America 4 a box-office flop?
What happened exactly? How did audiences manage to do what Red Hulk couldn't and actually defeat Cap?
Superhero fatigue, and Marvel fatigue specifically, is often cited in moments like this, although Deadpool & Wolverine's record-breaking haul of $1.3 billion last year suggests audiences will still show up for the right project. They're just more picky now, and it looks like mixed reviews for Brave New World sure didn't help.
At 49%, Captain America 4 is only the third MCU movie to receive a rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes, just a few percent higher than Eternals (47%) and Quantumania (46%). Remember, that's out of 35 movies.
And yes, Thor: Dark World is indeed rated fresh on there still at a much healthier 67%, just in case you were wondering.
What's worse is Brave New World's CinemaScore, which is usually considered a better metric for audience reception.
The movie's score of B- doesn't sound so bad on the face of it. That's a pass, right? Well, not when Quantumania got a B+. In fact, Brave New World is the only MCU movie to score lower than B+, which suggests it might be rather brave for audiences to show up and actually watch it in the first place.
Beyond the reviews and questions of quality, the movie also asked a lot of audiences to accept a new Cap after Chris Evans defined the role to such acclaim.
Yet this isn't the first time a hero has been replaced on screen, and it's not like Anthony Mackie is entirely new to the franchise. He has appeared in multiple Marvel movies, of course, including Avengers: Endgame, where his character, originally The Falcon, first accepted Steve's shield as his own.
Fans have had six years to come to terms with this change, not to mention an entire Disney+ series named The Falcon and the Winter Soldier to hold our hands through it further. Perhaps it's the slow speed of this transition that's deflated excitement in that regard, because Mackie himself obviously does a great job in the role, despite issues with the movie itself.
It is worth noting though that this is Mackie's first lead role on this scale, and neither he nor his character have been established as box-office draws on their own. It probably didn't help either that the movie's big 'twist', Harrison Ford hulking out and seeing red, was given away by marketing from the get-go.
And honestly, who was actually asking for a quasi-sequel to The Incredible Hulk of all movies, fifteen years on?
What does this mean for the MCU?
So what does this mean for the MCU moving forward? Should super producer Kevin Feige "get off the mound" as Deadpool creator Rob Liefeld recently put it on X?
Brave New World's lacklustre earnings and audience response certainly isn't ideal. In fact, it continues a downward trend, Deadpool & Wolverine aside, where audiences are clearly beginning to lose faith in the Marvel machine.
We're seeing that on the big screen and small screen, although Agatha All Along did recently perform well too, earning a Golden Globe nomination and consistently strong ratings.
What's key moving forward is selectivity, and it looks like Marvel is already well aware of that. The TV slate is being pruned, which means no second season of Secret Invasion, thank goodness.
There's also going to be a strong focus on exciting new additions to the MCU, including established teams such as Fantastic Four and the X-Men, which bodes well.
The real test though will be the upcoming Avengers movies, Doomsday and Secret Wars, because this was where Marvel's greatest success once lay and can do so again if they play their cards right.
Two decades on, it's up to Marvel to prove that they can transform their old world into something new and actually worth showing up for beyond brand loyalty and mindless devotion. Let's see if they can actually do it.
Captain America: Brave New World is out now in cinemas.
After teaching in England and South Korea, David turned to writing in Germany, where he covered everything from superhero movies to the Berlin Film Festival.
In 2019, David moved to London to join Digital Spy, where he could indulge his love of comics, horror and LGBTQ+ storytelling as Deputy TV Editor, and later, as Acting TV Editor.
David has spoken on numerous LGBTQ+ panels to discuss queer representation and in 2020, he created the Rainbow Crew interview series, which celebrates LGBTQ+ talent on both sides of the camera via video content and longform reads.
Beyond that, David has interviewed all your faves, including Henry Cavill, Pedro Pascal, Olivia Colman, Patrick Stewart, Ncuti Gatwa, Jamie Dornan, Regina King, and more — not to mention countless Drag Race legends.
As a freelance entertainment journalist, David has bylines across a range of publications including Empire Online, Radio Times, INTO, Highsnobiety, Den of Geek, The Digital Fix and Sight & Sound.
