Oscar prediction is an arcane art that inspires analysts to heights of speculation and argument each year. But by a couple of weeks before the ceremony, you have everything you need to predict the right winners at least 80% of the time. Here's how.
1. IGNORE THE BOOKIES
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The strange thing is that UK bookmakers start offering odds on Oscar winners long before they have actually seen the relevant films, based on buzz from the Toronto or Venice Film Festivals – or even Sundance, a full year before the awards.
Too many films crash and burn before the final stretch, so don't put money on too early.
2. IGNORE THE GOLDEN GLOBES
The Golden Globes are voted for by about 80 overseas journalists working in Hollywood, members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. There is little-to-no overlap between that tiny group and the wider Academy membership (5,763 members and counting), and their record of successfully predicting Oscar winners is patchy at best.
In years where there are clear frontrunners in the major categories, they can look pretty persuasive – but that's more luck than design. Never forget: these people nominated The Tourist for more than one prize.
3. PAY ATTENTION TO THE GUILD WINNERS
The Producers Guild Award (PGA, which confuses golf fans) is the best predictor of Best Picture, and even it is not infallible. Where the PGA and Directors Guild of America (DGA) agree, however, you'd be a brave person to bet against them. Equally, it's rare to win Best Picture without a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination for Best Ensemble – their equivalent of Best Picture – which is bad news for The Revenant, which wasn't nominated in that category.
This year is confusing from a Guild point of view, because The Big Short took the PGA, The Revenant took the DGA and Mark Ruffalo's Spotlight took the SAG. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a race!
4. EDITING MATTERS
No film since 1981 has won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination. That means that however many nominees there are in the Best Picture category, you can immediately ignore any that are not up for Best Editing as well.
This year, the winner is therefore likely to be one of The Big Short, The Revenant, Spotlight or Mad Max: Fury Road. Thanks for playing, Bridge Of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian and Room.
5. AND SO DOES SCREENPLAY, AND DIRECTOR
The Best Director nominees this year don't include Bridge Of Spies, The Martian or Brooklyn – so they probably won't win Best Picture, though that's a less strong correlation: see Argo, for instance, where Ben Affleck wasn't nominated for Best Director but the film still took Best Picture.
It's also unusual for a Best Picture winner not to have a Best Screenplay nomination of some sort – which is further bad news for The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road.
6. IN THE ACTING CATEGORIES, PAY ATTENTION TO AGE
It's disgraceful but true that age matters for acting winners. Generally speaking, women are more likely to win in their twenties and thirties, while men rarely win Best Actor before 40 – which is why at 41, Leonardo DiCaprio is finally looking like a frontrunner instead of an also-ran.
This isn't an Academy prejudice, we suspect; it has more to do with the sort of roles that men and women get, but the difference is really marked. Only one man has ever won Best Actor in his twenties (Adrien Brody was 29 when he won for The Pianist), while only two actresses have ever won in their 50s (Shirley Booth for Come Back, Little Sheba back in 1953, and Julianne Moore for Still Alice last year).
7. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE NARRATIVE
Oscar voters do seem to be susceptible to stories – unsurprisingly given that they have spent their whole lives crafting tall tales. So certain narratives tend to sway them. They like to award contenders portraying themselves as underdogs, they like to reward weight gain or loss or – horrors – uglification like Charlize Theron's in Monster, which won her Best Actress.
They like to crown new kings and queens (Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook) and to cheer something that makes them feel enlightened and hopeful (12 Years A Slave). The reason that we're not ruling The Revenant out despite its failure to triumph at the Guilds, or in the lesser categories, is that its narrative – filmmaking is hell, but dammit our art is worth it! - seems popular. It's all still to play for on Sunday night.
